Why India is unhappy
with Russia?
- Recently India-Russia defence minister-level talks were
scheduled @Delhi.
- But the meeting was postponed after Russian Defence
Minister did not come.
- At the same time, Pakistani Army Chief Gen Ashfaq
Parvez Kayani visited Moscow, thus causing Indian Government to conclude
that Russian Defence Minister had stayed back to meet Gen. Kiyani and
discuss weapon-deals with him.
- Apart from this, another bitter issue in Indo-Russian
relationship = the Gorshkov aircraft carrier. Because
Russia has failed to deliver it on time and demanding more money for
repairing and upgrading it.
- Earlier, Russia used to be the sole military hardware
supplier for Indian Government. But nowadays, Russia faces competition in
India’s arms bazaar from the US, Europe and Israel.
- Recently India was going to buy ammunition for Russian
made ZU-23mm Anti-aircraft guns from a Bulgarian Company. But Russia had
sent a message to India that Bulgaria doesn’t have the permission from
Russia, to export such ammunition to third country.
- Hence this move (of Russian Defense minister skipping the meeting in India), is seen as a message from Russia to India that “As a customer, if you’ve the right to choose, then we can also explore our options as a seller” (i.e. we can sell arms to Pakistan!)
- Pakistan wants Russian cooperation to upgrade its military
hardware, including Mi-17 helicopters and T-80UD tanks.
- Pakistan also wants to exchange military-to-military
exchanges with Russia
- For decades now, Russia’s South Asia policy had focused
on cultivating a special relationship with India and keeping Pakistan at
arms length.
- But nowadays, Russia’s main concern is narcotics
smuggling through Afghanistan, growing religious extremism and China’s
growing influence among Central Asian Nations, including Afghanistan.
[Recall that Central Asia has huge reserves of minerals, therefore India
is also interested in Central Asia- through Connect
Central Asia Policy.]
- Many in Russian Government believe that Pakistani Army
provides the best lever to effectively influence Afghanistan’s Government.
- Russia wants Pakistan to award the work of building its
section of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline to Russian energy company
Gazprom. [Although Gazprom had wanted Pakistani Government to award
this contract without bidding, but Pakistan is reluctant to do so.
Therefore there is some bitterness in relationship.]
- US plans to end its combat role in Afghanistan after
2014. And As America retreats from Afghanistan, China seeks to expand its
influence in Kabul, and hence Russia wants to protect its interests. Therefore
Russia needs Pakistani army’s cooperation.
- Pakistan has always had great strategic value for major
powers (US, China, Russia) because of its geopolitical location at
the crossroads of Central Asia and the Gulf,
- This is especially true when it comes to Afghanistan.
- Pakistan remains the principal external determinant of
Afghanistan’s future, because of its long and open border with
Afghanistan- whether it is economic interests (Chinese/Russia) or military
invasion (US’s war on terrorism).
- Therefore, any major power with interests in
Afghanistan must necessarily engage Pakistan.
- Some Indian Foreign policy experts believe that Russia
has found a new ally Pakistan.
- But this does not necessarily mean Russia would want to
give up its special relationship with India.
- Russia’s softness towards Pakistan has just begun and
it is unlikely to acquire any alarming dimension in the near future.
- And regarding the fears of Russia selling weapons to
Pakistan…well, Russia is not unaware that India’s arms market is much
bigger and Pakistan does not have the financial resources (LOL) to become
an attractive customer like India.
- Russia is still a dependable ally and the range of its
assistance — from sharing knowledge for the indigenous Arihant nuclear
missile submarine project, the leasing of the Chakra nuclear
attack submarine and first rights on the new fifth generation
fighter aircraft — cannot be ignored.
- When circumstances change and interests are redefined,
great powers have no hesitation in recasting their foreign policies. There
is no room here for sentimentalism.
- So, Rather than protesting Russia’s or any other great
nations’ engagement with Pakistan, We must focus on strengthening our own
ability to influence the developments in Afghanistan.